Migration stats from the Northern Triangle

The most recent statistics regarding persons crossing the southwestern US border have been released. For the concerns of the Trump administration, the most important statistic is that border apprehensions have dropped very significantly.  From the dramatic surge during the spring and summer of 2019, monthly apprehensions are back in the historic "normal" level:

FY20_NOV_SWB_Migration Graphic



The reasons for this are many and varied, but I would assert that the two primary factors are (1) a much tougher immigrant enforcement strategy by Mexico stopping many from reaching the US border, and (2) the harsh cruelty of US border policies including metering of asylum seekers at ports of entry, the Remain in Mexico policy, and increased detention of all other border crossers.   I don't think migration rates are going down because conditions are suddenly getting better for desperate peoples around the globe.

For migration from the Northern Triangle of Central America, it is possible to do a deeper dive into the data.   When you look at the 12 month data for the periods ending September 30 each year, you can see the dramatic surge in 2019:



El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras have many problems in common, but they also have important differences.   The best way I have found to compare the three with respect to migration is to look at the rate of apprehensions per 1000 of population for citizens from the three countries.   On that measure, Honduras stands out.   For the 12 months ended September 30, 2019, the rate of Hondurans caught crossing the US border was 27.41 per 1000 of population, while the rate for Guatemala was 15.63 and El Salvador was lower still at 13.61.  Put another way, Hondurans were fleeing their country at the twice the rate of Salvadorans in 2019.

These rates are shown graphically below.

 


The US government has also released data through November 2019 in its new fiscal year.    The apprehension rates show the dramatic reduction in border crossing in the most recent months:

Average apprehensions per day
Oct 2018-Sep 2019
Oct-Nov 2019
% decline
El Salvador
246
75
70%
Guatemala
724
195
73%
Honduras
695
163
77%


The breakdown of data just for Salvadorans for the past 4 years looks like this:


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