Polling before March 4 elections

Pollsters at Universidad Francisco Gavidia released the results of recent public opinion polling concerning the upcoming elections in El Salvador for deputies in the National Assembly and for mayors.  The results suggest that a population cynical about politicians will not show up to vote in great numbers, and those that vote will elect a greater percentage of officials from right wing parties.

For deputies, those polled responded:

  • Not going to vote at all:  33.2%
  • Declined to answer: 21.7%
  • Will cast a null vote:  5.3%   
  • ARENA:  17.4%
  • FMLN: 11.9%
  • GANA: 4.3%
  • PCN:  2.9%

There was an interesting result in the race for mayor of San Salvador.    The race is a virtual tie with three weeks to go, with 16.0% expressing a preference for Ernesto Muyshondt of ARENA and 15.5% expressing a preference for Jackeline Rivera of the FMLN.   Again, the majority of those interviewed are either not going to vote or have no preference. 

The current mayor of San Salvador, Nayib Bukele, continues to lead all contenders when voters are asked who will win the presidential elections in 2019.    In the UFG poll, 47.4% believe Bukele will win compared to only 13.2% for his nearest competitor Carlos Calleja of ARENA.