Polling a year before the elections

El Salvador's presidential campaign season for elections next year has begun in earnest, and La Prensa Grafica has some early polling data about voters' preferences.

In the tradition of Salvadoran opinion polling, the pollsters asked voters not which candidate they would vote for, but which political party they would vote for.   ARENA came out slightly ahead:
31.7% -- ARENA  (Norman Quijano)
28.3% -- FMLN  (Salvador Sanchez Ceren)
8.1%  --  GANA, PCN or PDC  (Tony Saca)
As in elections over the past 20 years since the peace accords, the two major parties still dominate the loyalties of the voters in largely equal measures.

In a poll result which might not bode well for the country's current vice president, Salvador Sanchez Ceren, 49.3% of Salvadorans said they want a change of party in power in the government, and only 37.3% want a continuation.

Right now, my very early prediction, is that Tony Saca gets enough votes to prevent either of the major party candidates from winning in the first round, but that Norman Quijano will win in the second round of balloting.