Bukele has lead in polls, but still has work to do
Recent polling by La Prensa Grafica indicates that Nayib Bukele, as a candidate for the GANA party, leads the race towards the February 2019 presidential elections in El Salvador. These are some of the first major polling results released since Bukele found his way onto the presidential ballot as the candidate of the GANA party.
Asked for whom they would vote in the presidential elections if they took place today, less than 50% responded to the pollsters. Those who answered the question, expressed the following preferences:
21.9% -- GANA (Bukele)
17.6% -- ARENA (Carlos Calleja)
8.6% -- FMLN (Hugo Martinez)
(The preferences are expressed by party rather than candidate, because presidential election ballots in El Salvador involve a choice among party names, not a choice among individually named candidates).
Other questions asked by pollsters give Bukele more strength, however. When asked their impression of various political figures, 58.7% said they had a good or very good impression of Bukele, while 47.2% had a good or very good impression of Carlos Calleja and only 24.8% felt that way about Hugo Martinez of the FMLN. Despite his lead, Bukele has slipped some in his favorability ratings over the past several months, partly because of nonstop attacks on him in the major media in the country and partly, I think, because of his willingness to make an alliance with GANA.
With 50% of potential voters unwilling to express their preferences, there is still much room for development of this election race. Right now, Bukele has the lead, but not much momentum. To win, he will need to move his online army to the voting centers. The other open question is whether Bukele can reach the 50% threshold to win in the first round of the elections, or will he have to compete in a second round six weeks later against his closest challenger.
Asked for whom they would vote in the presidential elections if they took place today, less than 50% responded to the pollsters. Those who answered the question, expressed the following preferences:
21.9% -- GANA (Bukele)
17.6% -- ARENA (Carlos Calleja)
8.6% -- FMLN (Hugo Martinez)
(The preferences are expressed by party rather than candidate, because presidential election ballots in El Salvador involve a choice among party names, not a choice among individually named candidates).
Other questions asked by pollsters give Bukele more strength, however. When asked their impression of various political figures, 58.7% said they had a good or very good impression of Bukele, while 47.2% had a good or very good impression of Carlos Calleja and only 24.8% felt that way about Hugo Martinez of the FMLN. Despite his lead, Bukele has slipped some in his favorability ratings over the past several months, partly because of nonstop attacks on him in the major media in the country and partly, I think, because of his willingness to make an alliance with GANA.
With 50% of potential voters unwilling to express their preferences, there is still much room for development of this election race. Right now, Bukele has the lead, but not much momentum. To win, he will need to move his online army to the voting centers. The other open question is whether Bukele can reach the 50% threshold to win in the first round of the elections, or will he have to compete in a second round six weeks later against his closest challenger.
Comments
En este momento, el 58.7% de los salvadoreños dice que tiene una opinión muy buena o buena de Nayib Bukele, mientras que el 14.1% tiene una opinión muy mala o mala. Al restar las opiniones negativas de las positivas, resulta un saldo de 44.6%. En febrero pasado, Bukele tenía 61.7% de opiniones positivas, con el 10.2% de opiniones negativas, para un saldo de 51.5%. La imagen de Bukele, entonces, se ha deteriorado en 6.9 puntos.
Las personas que tienen una imagen positiva de Bukele opinan de esa manera a partir del trabajo que hizo como alcalde de San Salvador, las propuestas que ha realizado y consideran que se preocupa por ayudar a la gente. Quienes opinan mal de él dicen que prepotente, mala persona y que no hizo un buen trabajo como alcalde.
En segundo lugar aparece el candidato de la coalición ARENA, PCN y PDC, Carlos Calleja, quien tiene un 47.2% de opiniones muy buenas o buenas, y el 22.4% de opiniones malas o muy malas, lo que le deja un saldo de 24.8%. En febrero pasado, Calleja tenía 36.4% de opiniones positivas, contra 15.3% de opinones negativas, con un saldo de 21.1%. En los últimos seis meses, entonces, su saldo mejoró 3.7 puntos.
Las personas que tienen una imagen positiva de Calleja opinan de esa manera destacan sus propuestas, que es un empresario y que él genera empleo. Quienes opinan mal de él aseguran que es explotador, que es mala persona y que está afectado por los casos de corrupción.
En cuarto lugar está el candidato del FMLN, Hugo Martínez, quien tiene 24.8% de opiniones muy buenas o buenas, y 17.4% de muy malas o malas, lo que lo deja con un saldo de 7.4%, el cual es el más alto obtenido por él desde inicios del 2016." https://www.laprensagrafica.com/lpgdatos/Bukele-y-Calleja-los-mejor-evaluados-20180901-0003.html
"El 31.4% dice que el candidato; el 29.4%, las propuestas; el 12.1%, la ideología, mientras que el 9.9%, el partido."
https://www.laprensagrafica.com/lpgdatos/El-candidato-sigue-siendo-el-factor-clave-20180901-0004.html