El Salvador Perspectives

In criminal complaints filed this week, El Salvador's attorney general charged officials from two of the country’s major parties, the FMLN and ARENA, of trying to steal, not cash, but the 2014 presidential election by making deals with El Salvador's notorious gangs. Most of the basic facts underlying the criminal complaint have long been public knowledge in El Salvador. Politicians from both ARENA and the FMLN are charged with meeting with leaders of MS-13 and the two branches of Barrio 18 in the lead up to the 2014 presidential election. That election pitted Norman Quijano of ARENA against Salvador Sanchéz Cerén of the FMLN. Both ARENA and the FMLN are charged with paying the gangs hundreds of thousands of dollars directly to procure votes or dissuade votes for the other party. Both ARENA and FMLN politicians are charged with meeting with the gangs to discuss what a future presidential administration might be able to do in favor of the gangs.  The new complaint against Norma...

A collection of current stories from El Salvador: Attorney General accuses Norman Quijano of fraud and seeks to strip him of legislative immunity .  El Salvador's attorney general Monday accused the ARENA party leader and former presidential candidate Norman Quijano of election fraud and making deals with criminal gangs in connection with 2014 presidential election.  Quijano is currently a deputy in the Legislative Assembly after most recently serving as the president of that body.   More on this in a future post. Prison system head must disclose who funded his trips to Mexico .   The governmental Institute for Access to Public Information has ordered the office of the prison system to disclose who paid for trips, including private jet trips, for prisons chief Osiris Luna Meza.  The case is seen as an indicator of the new government's lack of commitment to transparency.  Investigative journalists at RevistaFactum also reported that Luna...

This week in El Salvador, more than 400 members of MS-13 are defendants in a criminal trial.  The gang members were captured in country-wide raids called "Operation Cuscatlán" which targeted the gang's finances and money-making activities. From the  AP : El Salvador on Tuesday began a mass trial of over 400 alleged gang members, including 17 purported leaders of the feared transnational crime group Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13.  Sixteen suspects were in court while the rest watched via video conference from prisons. Nearly 100 defense lawyers are on the case, which could last until November given the volume of witnesses and evidence. One of the witnesses in the Operation Cuscatlán trial is a high ranking MS leader who reached a deal with prosecutors for his testimony.   Using the pseudonym Noé, this witness testified not only about the criminal activities of his gang, but also about the deals politicians made with the gangs. Noé  testified that MS-1...

There is currently a trial going on in El Salvador where the defendants are government officials and mediators charged with improperly granting concessions and benefits to leaders of El Salvador's gangs in connection with the so-called 2012 gang truce or " tregua ".   In the course of that trial, a gang leader who cut a deal with prosecutors testified last week that the country's leading political parties delivered a combined $350,000 to the gangs in return for delivering votes in the 2014 presidential elections. The witness goes by the moniker "Nalo" and his real name is Carlos Eduardo Burgos Nuila.   Nalo was part of the leadership of Barrio 18 Revolucionarios -- one of the two factions of the Barrio 18 gang in El Salvador.   Nalo was one of the gang leaders outside of the prisons who were called on to execute the orders of the imprisoned gang chiefs in connection with the 2012 gang truce. The ex-leader of the 18 Revolucionarios gang testified that the...

Today the Constitutional Chamber of El Salvador's Supreme Court rejected by a vote of 3-2 the petition of ARENA which demanded a ballot by ballot recount of the vote from the March 9 presidential elections.   Following the ruling, ARENA released a statement indicating that it would abide by the court's decision because of ARENA's "democratic vocation" and "full respect for the institutionality" of El Salvador.   While the process stirred up tensions and passions, in the end I think this very close election strengthened governance in the country.   We have had another election in El Salvador which was fought out with passion but not with violence.   The TSE was credited by all independent observers with running a fair and transparent election.   Despite the attacks from Norman Quijano and ARENA on the credibility of the TSE, it proceeded with great openness to follow the requirements of El Salvador's election laws to the letter.   ARENA did chal...

El Salvador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) received the evidence of alleged fraud and heard testimony from witnesses from ARENA on Sunday, but ruled that the election of Salvador Sanchez Ceren would not be set aside. The TSE found that there was no proof of any repetitive or systematic activity affecting the outcome of the election. Accordingly, the TSE declared that Salvador Sanchez Ceren would begin his five year term as president and Oscar Ortiz would begin his five year term as vice-president on June 1, 2014. El Faro has  a terrific photo gallery here which illustrates well the events of the past nine days commencing with the second round of the presidential election in El Salvador.

The process under El Salvador's electoral code continues.    Before El Salvador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) can ratify Salvador Sanchez Ceren's election as El Salvador's next president, it must address several timely filed petitions from ARENA to set aside the election results. According to La Prensa Grafica , the petitions include:    A petition to set aside the election because there was no vote by vote recount and no review of the "null" and disputed votes.   A petition to set aside the election because the FMLN violated a TSE order and declared itself the victor prior to results being certified by the TSE  (of course so did ARENA)   A petition to set aside the election for illegal campaigning by president Mauricio Funes and ALBA Petroleum in the last days before the election   A petition to set aside the election because two magistrates of the TSE have not acted impartially. The parties have until tomorrow to submit any and ...

Last night Salvador Sánchez Cerén, the candidate of the left wing FMLN party in El Salvador was officially declared the winner of the March 9 elections to be president of the country.   The announcement came after a process called the "final scrutiny"  where voting tally sheets from every voting station were compared with the preliminary results released on Sunday night.   There were some revisions to the results which produced final totals which were higher than the preliminary totals, but ARENA was not able to close the gap.   The final total was 1,495,815 for Ceren to 1,489,451 for Quijano, or 50.11% to 49.89%. ARENA has not yet accepted the results.   Party members continued demonstrating throughout the day demanding that the ballots be unsealed and the votes counted "voto por voto."   Norman Quijano continued to allege that ARENA had proof of significant fraud by the FMLN, but that proof has not been shared with the public.  AR...

A lot is being written about El Salvador's very close presidential election and especially about ARENA candidate Norman Quijano's fiery rejection of the preliminary results showing him losing by slightly more than 6000 votes.   While we wait for the " final scrutiny " of the election from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), here is a sample of what others are saying: The Associated Press commented on some of the reasons for ARENA's strong showing in the election: ARENA managed to make serious inroads with a campaign warning that the leftists might take the country on the course of Venezuela.   Roy Campos, president of the Consulta Mitofsky polling firm, said Quijano’s ads comparing the FMLN to Venezuela‘s leftist leaders, protests and economic scarcity may have worked, creating a situation where some voters “felt El Salvador was in danger.” “Venezuela was an important factor,” Campos said.   Marcos Rodriguez of the nonprofit civic group Citizens...

No official victor has been declared in El Salvador's presidential election.   At the moment, Sánchez Cerén of the FMLN leads Norman Quijano of ARENA by 6604 votes --  1,494,114 to 1,487,510. The process of checking each of the 10,445 "actas" or tally sheets on which the votes are recorded in El Salvador's presidential election begins this morning .   There will be 23 work tables made up of election officials, and representatives of the Attorney General, Human Rights Ombudsman and the political parties. This is one of those actas which will be reviewed (click to enlarge) I was an election observer in the community of Nahualapa in El Rosario, La Paz, to watch the vote counting which led to the filling out of this specific form, and I can vouch that it was filled out in accordance with the vote count.   It is also important to note that the form is signed at the top by the four election officials from the table  (two from each party) and by the elec...

In El Salvador's presidential election on Sunday, the preliminary victor is Salvador Sánchez Cerén of the left-wing FMLN, but by the slightest of margins, and with a final count of the votes yet to come.  Preliminary results are released on the Supreme Electoral Tribunal ("TSE") website very quickly after the votes are counted at polling places. Five hours after the polls were closed, 99.8% of the votes had been counted and Salvador Sánchez Cerén of the FMLN had a very slight  6264 vote lead out of almost 3 million votes cast. Both both parties declared themselves the victors of the election despite the warning by the TSE that no party should claim victory without the pronouncement of the TSE. What had started as a day filled with what Salvadoran like to call "our great civic fiesta" ended with tension and riot police guarding the facilities of the TSE.   Much of the blame for this tension must be placed squarely at the feet of Norman Quijano and his post e...

The second round of El Salvador's presidential election will be next Sunday, March 9.   The second round includes the two highest finishers from the first round voting -- Salvador Sánchez Cerén of the  FMLN on the left and Norman Quijano of ARENA on the right.   The winner of this fifth post civil war election will take office on June 1.   In this post I'll take a look at some of the coverage and issues going into Sunday's vote. For a comprehensive overview of El Salvador's 2014 presidential elections including a look at previous elections, make sure and look at this entry from the World Elections blog . The polls certainly suggest an easy victory for Sánchez Cerén and the FMLN in the second round.   Linda Garrett at Center for Democracy in the Americas has assembled a tally of all the recent polls , and Sánchez Cerén's lead ranges from 10 % to 18%.    In his blog Mike Allison points to questions asked in the UCA poll to explain ARENA's collap...

Recently released public opinion polls show the FMLN's Salvador Sánchez Cerén with a sizable lead heading toward the March 9 runoff election.    The UTEC-CIOPS poll released today shows the left wing candidate with 54.9% of the potential votes to 45.1% for Norman Quijano from ARENA.   This is about the same 10 point margin as the first round of the elections on February 2, when Sánchez Cerén had 48.9% of the votes and Quijano had 38.9%.      It appears that the voters who had voted for former president Tony Saca of UNIDAD in the first round are splitting fairly evenly between the two remaining candidates.   Quijano may be headed to a much bigger defeat than when Maurcio Funes beat Rodrigo Avila of ARENA 51.3% to 48.7% to become the country's first left wing president. The CID-Gallup poll shows Sánchez Cerén with an even bigger lead of 58% to 42%.

The rules of El Salvador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal are very clear about the process of voting on election day.    The parties are not to campaign at voting places.   Party monitors at the polls cannot instruct voters on how to mark their ballot.   Voters should keep their ballot secret.   Using a camera to take a photo of how you marked your ballot is prohibited in order to prevent a form of vote buying. But as this video from La Prensa Grafica shows,  apparently those rules don't apply or at least are ignored, when it comes to the parties trying to round up votes from Salvadorans living outside of the country. Since only around 10,000 Salvadorans were registered to vote outside of El Salvador, this exterior vote is unlikely to make any difference in the outcome on February 2.   As of last week, only about 1500 ballots had been received from abroad.

Linda Garrett at the Center for Democracy in the Americas has compiled an excellent primer on the candidates and all the issues involved in the February 2 presidential election in El Salvador.   I could write my own, but it would not be nearly as complete.  Read hers here:   El Salvador Presidential Election Preview, 2014 .

El Salvador held its first ever presidential debate Sunday night, broadcast live over radio and television in the country as well as streaming over the Internet.  The debate, sponsored by the association of Salvadoran broadcast media (ASDER) and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), was moderated by Mexican journalist Armando Guzmán from Univsion and took place at the Fair and Convention Center (CIFCO) in San Salvador. The three leading presidential candidates Norman Quijano (ARENA), Salvador Sánchez Cerén (FMLN), and Antonio Saca (Unidad), were joined on the stage by two minor candidates, Óscar Lemus (FPS) and René Rodríguez Hurtado (PSP).  The debate had four rounds of questions, touching on the topics of education, citizen security, healthcare and the economy. The approaches of the three leading candidates were largely predictable.   Current vice president Salvador Sanchez Ceren stressed the policies of the current FMLN government which are popular such as...

With El Salvador's presidential election approaching on February 2, the rhetoric and the interest in El Salvador and elsewhere is starting to crest.  Tony Saca, Norman Quijano, and Salvador Sánchez Cerén are criss-crossing the country searching for votes and filling social media channels with their campaign themes.  There have not been any recent opinion polls released, so it is hard to gauge which way things might be moving.   You can check my t racking chart to see how things looked in various polls throughout 2013.  The average of four polls released in December showed Salvador Sánchez Cerén with 34%, Norman Quijano with 32% and Tony Saca trailing significantly with 16%.   There is still a large undeclared group of voters.   This weekend on January 12, there will be a televised debate of the presidential candidates at 7 p.m. El Salvador time.   It's a first for the country, but I don't know how much impact it will have.     P...

There are seven weeks left until El Salvador's 2014 presidential elections on February 2.   Although the campaign has been going on since 2012, there is still much to be determined and much could change. The three leading candidates are Norman Quijano, the current mayor of San Salvador and candidate of the right wing ARENA party,  Salvador Sánchez Cerén, the current vice president and candidate of the left wing FMLN, and Tony Saca, former president of El Salvador from the ARENA party but now running on a coalition ticket of right wing parties called "Unidad."  Although there are a few other minor candidates, none of them has a chance of winning or much impact on what happens. My friends at the SHARE Foundation have published short biographies of each candidate on the SHARE blog.  Read about  Norman Quijano ,  Tony Saca , and  Salvador Sanchez Ceren . The most recent polls have started to show some consistent strength for Sánchez Cerén. ...

Francisco Flores was president of El Salvador from 1999-2004, one of the string of presidents from the conservative ARENA party.   Current president Mauricio Funes, from the left-wing FMLN, has said that Flores is being investigated for the alleged disappearance of $10 million during his presidency.   It is a case that has lots of political overtones during this passionate presidential election period. From the Associated Press : El Salvador's president has asked the attorney general to investigate a $10 million donation that Taiwan made 10 years ago to the Salvadoran government during the administration of then-President Francisco Flores.  President Mauricio Funes told reporters on Tuesday the complaint is based on suspicious operations detected by the U.S. Treasury Department, information received by prosecutors in September. He said he had a copy of the information but would not say how he received it.  The attorney general's office, which is independent...

Last week I described how the Constitutional Chamber of El Salvador's Supreme Court had agreed to hear a legal challenge to the aspirations of Tony Saca to be elected president for a second time.   Over the weekend came the news that the the justices have chosen to let the voters decide and that they will not rule on the case involving Saca.  According to a report in La Pagina , the interim president of the Supreme Court informed the Supreme Electoral Tribunal that the Court would not hear cases filed against Norman Quijano and Salvador Sanchez Ceren, and would only rule on the case involving Tony Saca after the elections. That seems to be a prudent decision.   With Saca trailing in recent polls , the Court may be able to avoid ruling all together and avoid provoking another constitutional conflict.